Berkonomics

What if your gut says “yes” and the data says “NO?”

Your gut screams “yes.”

What do you do?

I’ve been on both sides of this battle for 50 years.

Sometimes the numbers lie.

Not because they’re wrong, but because they can’t capture what matters most: timing, team chemistry, market momentum, and pure human intuition.

I once passed on a deal because the financials looked terrible. Every metric screamed “disaster waiting to happen.”

That company became a billion-dollar success.

The founder had something the spreadsheet couldn’t measure: unshakeable conviction and the ability to see around corners.

[Email readers, continue here…] But I’ve also watched entrepreneurs chase gut feelings into bankruptcy. Beautiful ideas that looked perfect on paper but ignored brutal market realities.

The secret isn’t choosing one over the other.

It’s learning when to trust each voice.

Your gut is pattern recognition working at lightning speed. It’s processing thousands of micro-signals your conscious mind can’t even see.

But gut without data is gambling.

Data without gut is paralysis.

The best decisions happen when both align. But when they don’t?

Ask yourself: What story are the numbers telling, and what story is my experience whispering?

Sometimes the spreadsheet is protecting you from a costly mistake.

Sometimes it’s protecting you from the biggest opportunity of your life.

The difference?

Leaders who win learn to tell which is which.

Your gut has decades of pattern recognition. Your spreadsheet has today’s snapshot.

Both matter. Neither tells the complete story.

Trust the process, not just the numbers.

What’s your gut telling you right now that the data says you should ignore?

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